and then hurricane sandy hit. on tuesday romney will try to unseat an incumbent president, he's trying to knock a party out of power after just one term. while the president is targeting each part of his coalition with a handful of small arguments, romney is counting on winning the large one. >> he made a lot of promises, but those promises he couldn't keep. and the difference between us, he made promises he couldn't keep, i'm making promises i have kept and i will keep them for the american people. >> so where does that leave us? the two campaigns believe passionately in two different realities. the president obama campaign believes the countries demographics have changed the etor roert in your favor. the romney campaign believes you have the momentum to swing over. it's possible we are headed for a 50/50 split. it all comes down to nine states or seven or five? whatever the result. polarization is hardening. the house has changed hands three times in the last two decades. two of those times have been in the last